Practice 02 · Transaction & Asset Red-Teaming
The other side of the trade, argued properly.
Before an investment committee commits, we build the strongest case against the deal: the bear case the model leaves out, tested against base rates and the physical asset, so the committee sees the downside priced before the upside is sold. Independent of the deal team, the adviser and the outcome.
What we test
Four places a resource deal usually breaks, each rebuilt independently.
Nothing is reviewed from the seller’s numbers.
The thesis
Supply · demand · price deck
The market case behind the valuation: the supply-demand balance, the price deck and the point where consensus is doing the work instead of evidence.
We deliver
Contrarian thesis note · price-deck stress test
The asset
Pit / wellhead to port
Resource basis, ramp-up profile, capex and schedule, and the logistics chain to market, each set against the base rate for comparable projects.
We deliver
Red-team teardown · base-rate dossier
The structure
JV · offtake · financing
Who controls what, who carries which risk, and whether the financing survives the downside case rather than the base case.
We deliver
Bankability review · governance map
The jurisdiction
Fiscal · licence · counterparty
Fiscal terms, licensing and the host-state relationship as they bear on this transaction. The full jurisdictional practice sits under Resource Risk & Governance.
We deliver
Jurisdictional review · licence exposure register
Principal’s record
The host state, the lender and the asset, seen from the inside.
CGE model
Ministry of Finance, Guinea
Designed the computable general equilibrium modelling programme on the state's royalty and development receipts.
World Bank · IMF · IFC
Government of Guinea
Working with the government and the multilaterals on Simandou.
Subsea
Jangkrik · Gumusut-Kakap · Agbami
Work on subsea projects in Indonesia, Malaysia and Nigeria.
From the principal’s record Case file: A model handed to a ministry →Case file: Two exploration businesses, sold →
How it runs
Three steps, built around the committee date, not a consulting calendar.
01 · Brief
The deal materials and the one question the committee must answer.
02 · Teardown
Independent rebuild of the assumptions that carry the valuation, tested against base rates.
03 · Committee
A written IC memo, and the challenge argued in the room where the decision is made.
Who commissions it
Funds, lenders, investors and operator boards.
PE & infrastructure funds
Investment committees underwriting resource risk.
For capital →
Project finance & DFIs
Lenders testing bankability before close.
For capital →
Institutional investors
Allocators taking a position in a resource name or fund.
For capital →
Operator boards
A build or acquisition case pressure-tested before capital is committed.
For operators →
The method, applied in public
Four published Field Notes show the teardown at work.
Each torn down on public information.
18 Oct 2026 · SE Asia · Gas & LNG
Eni · Petronas · Kutei North
The 33-Month Bet
Eni and Petronas have set first gas at Kutei North 33 months after sanction. Of eleven large floating developments, two were faster, and Hormuz has made the date worth more.
Risk Series · 65 sources →
11 Sept 2026 · Europe · Oil & Gas
Saipem · Subsea7 · European Commission
The €300 Million Confession
Saipem and Subsea7 published a €300m annual synergy built on fleet optimisation and reduced bidding overlap. Twelve months later Brussels opened Phase II on the same industrial facts, then stopped the clock.
Risk Series · 28 sources →
01 Sept 2026 · Latin America · Oil
Venezuela · PDVSA · ExxonMobil
Sixty-Five Billion
Washington announced control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude. The deal's own revenue arithmetic sells eleven billion, and producing 65 billion inside the term would need 7.12m bpd sustained.
Risk Series · 16 sources →
07 Aug 2026 · West Africa · Manganese
Eramet · Weda Bay · Comilog
Eighty-Three Days
Eramet's strategy document could not survive its own results: €672m of losses in six quarters against €441m of equity.
Risk Series · 20 sources →